Will AI replace 路線バス運転士?AI replacement risk 28% and how the work is changing

Japan Transportation Confidence ★★★★★

Average annual pay
¥4.53M
≈ $28,813
Top pay (est.)
¥7.52M
Top 10% ¥6.52M
Pay in 5 years
¥5.34Mest.
2031
Pay in 10 years
¥6.29Mest.
¥5.41M–¥7.30M
Outlook score
62/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
28%
Low
Labor demand
High
Openings-to-applicants 2.58x

Will AI replace 路線バス運転士? AI replacement risk

28%
Low
Ranked #141 safest from AI among all Japanese occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using the MHLW job tag survey on work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for 路線バス運転士

Key skills

Active Listening
2.7
Speaking
2.3
Reading Comprehension
2.1
Equipment Maintenance
2.1
Operation and Control
2.1
Service Orientation
2.1
Social Perceptiveness
1.9
Time Management
1.9

Skill levels from the MHLW job tag worker survey.

Key knowledge areas

Transportation
2.4
Customer and Personal Service
1.1
Psychology
0.5
Foreign Language
0.5
Education and Training
0.4
Geography
0.4
Public Safety and Security
0.4
English Language
0.4

What the work involves

Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or EquipmentEvaluating Information to Determine Compliance with StandardsCommunicating with Supervisors, Peers, or SubordinatesPerforming for or Working Directly with the PublicIdentifying Objects, Actions, and EventsMonitoring Processes, Materials, or SurroundingsUpdating and Using Relevant KnowledgeEstablishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships

Important abilities

Far VisionDepth PerceptionReaction TimeVisual Color DiscriminationProblem SensitivityHearing Sensitivity

Licenses and certifications (Japan)

Related qualifications listed on job tag (names in Japanese). Some are mandatory, others recommended.

Education of workers

Training before entry

Related work experience

Difficulty of entry: ★★☆☆☆ Fairly easy (from education, training, experience, licenses)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: Basic Survey on Wage Structure (2025), Population Census and Hello Work employment statistics as published on the MHLW job tag site (retrieved Nov 1, 2026); Occupational Information Database (JILPT). Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.