Today ¥4.85M → in 3 years ¥5.38M → in 5 years ¥5.77M → in 10 years ¥6.85M (10-year range ¥5.89M–¥7.95M). The model assumes pay growth of +3.5% per year.
¥4.85M
Now 2026
¥5.38M
In 3 yrs 2029
¥4.97M–¥5.86M
¥5.77M
In 5 yrs 2031
¥5.20M–¥6.42M
¥6.85M
In 10 yrs 2036
¥5.89M–¥7.95M
What drives the annual growth rate
Base wage growth +1.8%Labor demand +1.0%Wage momentum +0.37%AI impact +0.22%Retirement shortage +0.2%Total +3.5% / yr
Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (the job-openings-to-applicants ratio), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →
Outlook score for 大工
73/100
★★★★☆
Good · ranked #5 of all Japanese occupations
AI resistance
80 pts
Entry barrier
86 pts
Pay level
44 pts
Labor demand
94 pts
Wage momentum
31 pts
Aging workforce
94 pts
Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.
Labor demand for 大工
Openings-to-applicants ratio
4.37x
ranked #31 of all Japanese jobs
Demand score
Very high
80/100
Advertised monthly wage
¥288,000
Hello Work postings
Workers
—
Population Census
Average age
50.2
Hours per month
174
Openings in 5 years
+22.8%
est.
Openings in 10 years
+41.0%
est.
A ratio above 1.0 means there are more job openings than applicants (a labor shortage). The 5- and 10-year figures are estimates from the openings ratio, wage momentum and AI replacement risk.
Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: Basic Survey on Wage Structure (2025), Population Census and Hello Work employment statistics as published on the MHLW job tag site (retrieved Nov 1, 2026); Occupational Information Database (JILPT). Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.