Shigoto Zukan
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Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $83,900 · outlook score 69/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Social Services Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$60,280
25th–75th pct. $47,070–$79,730
Top pay (est.)
$135,400
Top 10% $104,170
Pay in 5 years
$71,100est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$83,900est.
$72,200–$97,500
Outlook score
69/100
★★★☆☆ Good
AI replacement risk
43%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+10.3%
12K openings / yr

Projected pay for Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $60,280 → in 3 years $66,600 → in 5 years $71,100 → in 10 years $83,900 (10-year range $72,200–$97,500). The model assumes pay growth of +3.4% per year.

$60,280
Now
2026
$66,600
In 3 yrs
2029
$61,500–$72,400
$71,100
In 5 yrs
2031
$64,100–$79,200
$83,900
In 10 yrs
2036
$72,200–$97,500

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.32%AI impact +0.05%Total +3.4% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers

69/100
★★★☆☆
Good · ranked #70 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
49 pts
AI resistance
57 pts
Entry barrier
89 pts
Annual openings
56 pts
Projected growth
93 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers

Employment
133K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
153K
2025–35
Projected change
+10.3%
ranked #56 for growth
Annual openings
12K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
High
78/100
Typical entry education
Master's degree
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Internship/residency

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.