Will AI replace プログラマー?AI replacement risk 80% and how the work is changing

Japan IT & Software Confidence ★★★★★

Average annual pay
¥5.78M
≈ $36,787
Top pay (est.)
¥10.01M
Top 10% ¥8.60M
Pay in 5 years
¥6.21Mest.
2031
Pay in 10 years
¥6.67Mest.
¥5.74M–¥7.74M
Outlook score
38/100
★★☆☆☆ Below average
AI replacement risk
80%
High
Labor demand
Average
Openings-to-applicants 1.45x

Will AI replace プログラマー? AI replacement risk

80%
High
Ranked #495 safest from AI among all Japanese occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using the MHLW job tag survey on work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for プログラマー

Key skills

Programming
4.9
Active Listening
4.1
Reading Comprehension
4.1
Writing
3.7
Speaking
3.6
Technology Design
3.4
Quality Control Analysis
3.4
Operations Analysis
3.3

Skill levels from the MHLW job tag worker survey.

Key knowledge areas

Computers and Electronics
3.3
Design
2.4
Mathematics
2.3
Telecommunications
2.1
Administrative
1.8
Communications and Media
1.6
English Language
1.4
Engineering and Technology
1.2

What the work involves

Working with ComputersProcessing InformationOrganizing, Planning, and Prioritizing WorkScheduling Work and ActivitiesAnalyzing Data or InformationUpdating and Using Relevant KnowledgeGetting InformationCommunicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates

Important abilities

Problem SensitivityWritten ExpressionWritten ComprehensionFluency of IdeasOral ComprehensionMathematical Reasoning

Licenses and certifications (Japan)

Related qualifications listed on job tag (names in Japanese). Some are mandatory, others recommended.

Education of workers

Training before entry

Related work experience

Difficulty of entry: ★★★☆☆ Moderate (from education, training, experience, licenses)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: Basic Survey on Wage Structure (2025), Population Census and Hello Work employment statistics as published on the MHLW job tag site (retrieved Nov 1, 2026); Occupational Information Database (JILPT). Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.