Will AI replace 汎用金属工作機械工(旋盤工、ボール盤工等)?AI replacement risk 41% and how the work is changing

Japan Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Average annual pay
¥4.84M
≈ $30,771
Top pay (est.)
¥8.12M
Top 10% ¥7.02M
Pay in 5 years
¥5.47Mest.
2031
Pay in 10 years
¥6.19Mest.
¥5.32M–¥7.19M
Outlook score
54/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
41%
Moderate
Labor demand
High
Openings-to-applicants 1.98x

Will AI replace 汎用金属工作機械工(旋盤工、ボール盤工等)? AI replacement risk

41%
Moderate
Ranked #230 safest from AI among all Japanese occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using the MHLW job tag survey on work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for 汎用金属工作機械工(旋盤工、ボール盤工等)

Key skills

Instructing
3.5
Equipment Selection
3.2
Active Listening
3.1
Reading Comprehension
3.1
Speaking
3.1
Coordination
3.0
Installation
3.0
Quality Control Analysis
2.9

Skill levels from the MHLW job tag worker survey.

Key knowledge areas

Mechanical
3.0
Production and Processing
2.8
Design
1.9
Mathematics
1.7
Engineering and Technology
1.6
Administration and Management
1.4
Physics
1.4
Administrative
1.3

What the work involves

Controlling Machines and ProcessesEstimating the Quantifiable Characteristics of Products, Events, or InformationHandling and Moving ObjectsOrganizing, Planning, and Prioritizing WorkInspecting Equipment, Structures, or MaterialsPerforming General Physical ActivitiesJudging the Qualities of Objects, Services, or PeopleRepairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment

Important abilities

Problem SensitivityManual DexterityFinger DexterityArm-Hand SteadinessStatic StrengthStamina

Licenses and certifications (Japan)

Related qualifications listed on job tag (names in Japanese). Some are mandatory, others recommended.

Education of workers

Training before entry

Related work experience

Difficulty of entry: ★★★☆☆ Moderate (from education, training, experience, licenses)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: Basic Survey on Wage Structure (2025), Population Census and Hello Work employment statistics as published on the MHLW job tag site (retrieved Nov 1, 2026); Occupational Information Database (JILPT). Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.