Shigoto Zukan
日本語

Will AI replace computer programmers?AI replacement risk 80% and how the work is changing

United States IT & Software Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$100,390
25th–75th pct. $75,850–$130,680
Top pay (est.)
$208,600
Top 10% $160,460
Pay in 5 years
$108,300est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$116,900est.
$100,500–$135,700
Outlook score
33/100
★★☆☆☆ Below average
AI replacement risk
80%
High
Job growth (10 yr)
−7.3%
4,400 openings / yr

Will AI replace Computer Programmers? AI replacement risk

80%
High
Ranked #792 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for Computer Programmers

Key skills

Programming
4.9
Active Listening
4.0
Critical Thinking
3.9
Complex Problem Solving
3.9
Operations Analysis
3.8
Systems Evaluation
3.6
Reading Comprehension
3.5
Quality Control Analysis
3.5

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Computers and Electronics
6.2
Mathematics
4.5
Engineering and Technology
4.2
English Language
3.8
Geography
3.7
Design
3.3
Administrative
3.2
Customer and Personal Service
3.1

What the work involves

Working with ComputersThinking CreativelyAnalyzing Data or InformationProcessing InformationUpdating and Using Relevant KnowledgeCommunicating with Supervisors, Peers, or SubordinatesMaking Decisions and Solving ProblemsIdentifying Objects, Actions, and Events

Important abilities

Oral ComprehensionInformation OrderingWritten ComprehensionNear VisionDeductive ReasoningInductive Reasoning

Education of workers

Bachelor's degree
88%
Associate's degree
9%
Some college
3%

Training before entry

Up to 1 month
10%
6–12 months
8%
Over 10 years
6%
3–6 months
4%
4–10 years
2%

Related work experience

4–6 years
13%
8–10 years
8%
2–4 years
7%
1–2 years
3%
None
3%

Job Zone 4 — considerable preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★★★★☆ Demanding (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.