Shigoto Zukan
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Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $80,800 · outlook score 41/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Transportation Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$60,600
25th–75th pct. $52,780–$80,360
Top pay (est.)
$130,400
Top 10% $100,270
Pay in 5 years
$70,000est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$80,800est.
$69,500–$93,800
Outlook score
41/100
★★☆☆☆ Below average
AI replacement risk
40%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
+0.8%
300 openings / yr

Projected pay for Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $60,600 → in 3 years $66,100 → in 5 years $70,000 → in 10 years $80,800 (10-year range $69,500–$93,800). The model assumes pay growth of +2.9% per year.

$60,600
Now
2026
$66,100
In 3 yrs
2029
$61,000–$71,900
$70,000
In 5 yrs
2031
$63,000–$77,900
$80,800
In 10 yrs
2036
$69,500–$93,800

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.16%AI impact +0.07%Total +2.9% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers

41/100
★★☆☆☆
Below average · ranked #648 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
49 pts
AI resistance
60 pts
Entry barrier
28 pts
Annual openings
27 pts
Projected growth
32 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers

Employment
3,920
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
3,600
2025–35
Projected change
+0.8%
ranked #551 for growth
Annual openings
300
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Low
26/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.