Shigoto Zukan
日本語

Surgeons, All Other job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $570,700 · outlook score 65/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Healthcare Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$414,010
25th–75th pct. $134,850–$511,420
Top pay (est.)
$851,900
Top 10% $655,320
Pay in 5 years
$486,100est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$570,700est.
$490,800–$662,600
Outlook score
65/100
★★★☆☆ Good
AI replacement risk
15%
Very low
Job growth (10 yr)
+4.0%
700 openings / yr

Projected pay for Surgeons, All Other (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $414,010 → in 3 years $455,900 → in 5 years $486,100 → in 10 years $570,700 (10-year range $490,800–$662,600). The model assumes pay growth of +3.3% per year.

$414,010
Now
2026
$455,900
In 3 yrs
2029
$420,900–$496,100
$486,100
In 5 yrs
2031
$438,000–$541,400
$570,700
In 10 yrs
2036
$490,800–$662,600

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.0%AI impact +0.26%Total +3.3% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Surgeons, All Other

65/100
★★★☆☆
Good · ranked #134 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
100 pts
AI resistance
85 pts
Annual openings
1 pts
Projected growth
63 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Surgeons, All Other

Employment
25K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
29K
2025–35
Projected change
+4.0%
ranked #294 for growth
Annual openings
700
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
40/100
Typical entry education
Doctoral or professional degree
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Internship/residency

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.