Will AI replace transportation workers, all other?AI replacement risk 40% and how the work is changing

United States Transportation Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay

$45,650

25th–75th pct. $38,240–$60,400

Top pay (est.)

$103,400

Top 10% $79,540

Pay in 5 years

$53,100est.

2031

Pay in 10 years

$61,800est.

$53,100–$71,700

Outlook score

56/100

★★★☆☆ Average

AI replacement risk

40%

Low

Job growth (10 yr)

+4.0%

1,600 openings / yr

Will AI replace Transportation Workers, All Other? AI replacement risk

40%

Low

Ranked #375 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for Transportation Workers, All Other

Related occupations

	Occupation	Pay	Outlook	AI risk
1	Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Drive a tractor-trailer combination or a truck with a capacity of at least 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW).	$58,640	53/100	42%
2	Light Truck Drivers Drive a light vehicle, such as a truck or van, with a capacity of less than 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW), primarily to pick up merchandise or packages from a distribution center and deliver.	$44,860	56/100	35%
3	Driver/Sales Workers Drive truck or other vehicle over established routes or within an established territory and sell or deliver goods, such as food products, including restaurant take-out items, or pick up or deliver items such as commercial laundry.	$38,770	58/100	32%
4	Bus Drivers, School Drive a school bus to transport students.	$47,920	43/100	45%
5	Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs Drive a motor vehicle to transport passengers on a planned or scheduled basis.	$37,290	63/100	37%
6	Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity Drive bus or motor coach, including regular route operations, charters, and private carriage.	$59,050	57/100	38%

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data

Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.