Shigoto Zukan
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Air Traffic Controllers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $190,600 · outlook score 52/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Aviation Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$148,080
25th–75th pct. $104,520–$190,570
Top pay (est.)
$280,300
Top 10% $215,610
Pay in 5 years
$168,000est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$190,600est.
$163,900–$221,300
Outlook score
52/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
61%
High
Job growth (10 yr)
+1.7%
2,100 openings / yr

Projected pay for Air Traffic Controllers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $148,080 → in 3 years $159,700 → in 5 years $168,000 → in 10 years $190,600 (10-year range $163,900–$221,300). The model assumes pay growth of +2.5% per year.

$148,080
Now
2026
$159,700
In 3 yrs
2029
$147,500–$173,800
$168,000
In 5 yrs
2031
$151,400–$187,100
$190,600
In 10 yrs
2036
$163,900–$221,300

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.11%AI impact -0.33%Total +2.5% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Air Traffic Controllers

52/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #444 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
95 pts
AI resistance
39 pts
Entry barrier
54 pts
Annual openings
55 pts
Projected growth
39 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Air Traffic Controllers

Employment
23K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
24K
2025–35
Projected change
+1.7%
ranked #502 for growth
Annual openings
2,100
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
43/100
Typical entry education
Associate's degree
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.