Will AI replace bus drivers, transit and intercity?AI replacement risk 38% and how the work is changing
Median annual pay
$59,050
25th–75th pct. $47,530–$70,700
Top pay (est.)
$110,100
Top 10% $84,700
Pay in 5 years
$68,800est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$80,100est.
$68,900–$93,000
Outlook score
57/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
38%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
+4.1%
21K openings / yr
Will AI replace Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity? AI replacement risk
38%
Low
Ranked #349 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high
How AI is changing this job
A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.
AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →
Skills, education and requirements for Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
Key skills
O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).
Key knowledge areas
What the work involves
Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or EquipmentPerforming for or Working Directly with the PublicEstablishing and Maintaining Interpersonal RelationshipsMaking Decisions and Solving ProblemsMonitoring Processes, Materials, or SurroundingsCommunicating with Supervisors, Peers, or SubordinatesInspecting Equipment, Structures, or MaterialsCommunicating with People Outside the Organization
Important abilities
Response OrientationReaction TimeFar VisionMultilimb CoordinationControl PrecisionRate Control
Education of workers
Training before entry
Related work experience
Job Zone 2 — some preparation needed (O*NET)
Difficulty of entry: ★☆☆☆☆ Easy to enter (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)
Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.