Projected pay for Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity (3, 5 and 10 years)est.
Today $59,050 → in 3 years $64,700 → in 5 years $68,800 → in 10 years $80,100 (10-year range $68,900–$93,000). The model assumes pay growth of +3.1% per year.
$59,050
Now 2026
$64,700
In 3 yrs 2029
$59,700–$70,400
$68,800
In 5 yrs 2031
$62,000–$76,600
$80,100
In 10 yrs 2036
$68,900–$93,000
What drives the annual growth rate
Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.0%AI impact +0.09%Total +3.1% / yr
Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →
Outlook score for Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
57/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #324 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
47 pts
AI resistance
62 pts
Entry barrier
12 pts
Annual openings
79 pts
Projected growth
65 pts
Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.
Labor demand for Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity
Employment
159K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
173K
2025–35
Projected change
+4.1%
ranked #289 for growth
Annual openings
21K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
High
72/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.
Drive a light vehicle, such as a truck or van, with a capacity of less than 26,001 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW), primarily to pick up merchandise or packages from a distribution center and deliver.
Drive truck or other vehicle over established routes or within an established territory and sell or deliver goods, such as food products, including restaurant take-out items, or pick up or deliver items such as commercial laundry.
Park vehicles or issue tickets for customers in a parking lot or garage.
$35,150
40/100
42%
Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.