Shigoto Zukan
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First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $111,700 · outlook score 51/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Retail Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$87,520
25th–75th pct. $63,940–$122,050
Top pay (est.)
$213,300
Top 10% $164,070
Pay in 5 years
$98,900est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$111,700est.
$96,000–$129,600
Outlook score
51/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
62%
High
Job growth (10 yr)
+0.5%
22K openings / yr

Projected pay for First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $87,520 → in 3 years $94,200 → in 5 years $98,900 → in 10 years $111,700 (10-year range $96,000–$129,600). The model assumes pay growth of +2.5% per year.

$87,520
Now
2026
$94,200
In 3 yrs
2029
$86,900–$102,500
$98,900
In 5 yrs
2031
$89,100–$110,100
$111,700
In 10 yrs
2036
$96,000–$129,600

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.17%AI impact -0.36%Total +2.5% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers

51/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #467 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
77 pts
AI resistance
38 pts
Entry barrier
75 pts
Annual openings
62 pts
Projected growth
31 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers

Employment
214K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
314K
2025–35
Projected change
+0.5%
ranked #569 for growth
Annual openings
22K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
50/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
Less than 5 years
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
None

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.