Shigoto Zukan
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Will AI replace heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers?AI replacement risk 42% and how the work is changing

United States Transportation Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$58,640
25th–75th pct. $47,960–$69,120
Top pay (est.)
$103,200
Top 10% $79,380
Pay in 5 years
$68,100est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$79,200est.
$68,100–$91,900
Outlook score
53/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
42%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+3.8%
214K openings / yr

Will AI replace Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers? AI replacement risk

42%
Moderate
Ranked #399 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Key skills

Operation and Control
3.6
Operations Monitoring
3.1
Time Management
3.0
Active Listening
3.0
Reading Comprehension
3.0
Monitoring
3.0
Troubleshooting
2.9
Speaking
2.9

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Customer and Personal Service
4.1
Transportation
3.9
Public Safety and Security
3.2
English Language
3.2
Mechanical
3.2
Education and Training
3.1
Computers and Electronics
2.8
Law and Government
2.6

What the work involves

Handling and Moving ObjectsPerforming General Physical ActivitiesMonitoring Processes, Materials, or SurroundingsOperating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or EquipmentGetting InformationIdentifying Objects, Actions, and EventsInspecting Equipment, Structures, or MaterialsRepairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment

Important abilities

Rate ControlReaction TimeResponse OrientationMultilimb CoordinationFar VisionControl Precision

Education of workers

High school diploma
54%
Less than high school
26%
Post-secondary certificate
19%
Some college
1%

Training before entry

Up to 1 month
55%
1–3 months
18%
None / short demo
12%
6–12 months
10%
3–6 months
3%
1–2 years
1%

Related work experience

1–2 years
39%
None
32%
2–4 years
20%
6–12 months
6%
8–10 years
2%

Job Zone 2 — some preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★☆☆☆☆ Easy to enter (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.