Shigoto Zukan
日本語

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $79,200 · outlook score 53/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Transportation Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$58,640
25th–75th pct. $47,960–$69,120
Top pay (est.)
$103,200
Top 10% $79,380
Pay in 5 years
$68,100est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$79,200est.
$68,100–$91,900
Outlook score
53/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
42%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+3.8%
214K openings / yr

Projected pay for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $58,640 → in 3 years $64,200 → in 5 years $68,100 → in 10 years $79,200 (10-year range $68,100–$91,900). The model assumes pay growth of +3.0% per year.

$58,640
Now
2026
$64,200
In 3 yrs
2029
$59,300–$69,800
$68,100
In 5 yrs
2031
$61,400–$75,900
$79,200
In 10 yrs
2036
$68,100–$91,900

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.01%AI impact +0.06%Total +3.0% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

53/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #429 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
46 pts
AI resistance
58 pts
Entry barrier
16 pts
Annual openings
64 pts
Projected growth
61 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Employment
2.1M
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
2.3M
2025–35
Projected change
+3.8%
ranked #317 for growth
Annual openings
214K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
High
69/100
Typical entry education
Postsecondary nondegree award
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.