Shigoto Zukan
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Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $104,400 · outlook score 58/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Protective Services Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$76,210
25th–75th pct. $59,290–$97,600
Top pay (est.)
$149,700
Top 10% $115,120
Pay in 5 years
$89,200est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$104,400est.
$89,800–$121,200
Outlook score
58/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
20%
Very low
Job growth (10 yr)
+3.5%
52K openings / yr

Projected pay for Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $76,210 → in 3 years $83,800 → in 5 years $89,200 → in 10 years $104,400 (10-year range $89,800–$121,200). The model assumes pay growth of +3.2% per year.

$76,210
Now
2026
$83,800
In 3 yrs
2029
$77,300–$91,100
$89,200
In 5 yrs
2031
$80,400–$99,400
$104,400
In 10 yrs
2036
$89,800–$121,200

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.03%AI impact +0.22%Total +3.2% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers

58/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #284 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
67 pts
AI resistance
80 pts
Entry barrier
34 pts
Annual openings
28 pts
Projected growth
57 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers

Employment
671K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
717K
2025–35
Projected change
+3.5%
ranked #351 for growth
Annual openings
52K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
56/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.