Shigoto Zukan
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Retail Salespersons job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $47,000 · outlook score 40/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Retail Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$35,410
25th–75th pct. $29,900–$38,670
Top pay (est.)
$62,300
Top 10% $47,890
Pay in 5 years
$40,800est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$47,000est.
$40,400–$54,500
Outlook score
40/100
★★☆☆☆ Below average
AI replacement risk
39%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
−0.3%
521K openings / yr

Projected pay for Retail Salespersons (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $35,410 → in 3 years $38,500 → in 5 years $40,800 → in 10 years $47,000 (10-year range $40,400–$54,500). The model assumes pay growth of +2.9% per year.

$35,410
Now
2026
$38,500
In 3 yrs
2029
$35,600–$41,900
$40,800
In 5 yrs
2031
$36,700–$45,400
$47,000
In 10 yrs
2036
$40,400–$54,500

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.21%AI impact +0.08%Total +2.9% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Retail Salespersons

40/100
★★☆☆☆
Below average · ranked #666 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
3 pts
AI resistance
61 pts
Entry barrier
18 pts
Annual openings
80 pts
Projected growth
26 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Retail Salespersons

Employment
3.9M
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
4.0M
2025–35
Projected change
−0.3%
ranked #599 for growth
Annual openings
521K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
57/100
Typical entry education
No formal educational credential
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.