Shigoto Zukan
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Security Guards job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $50,700 · outlook score 41/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Protective Services Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$38,020
25th–75th pct. $35,210–$46,200
Top pay (est.)
$76,500
Top 10% $58,840
Pay in 5 years
$43,900est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$50,700est.
$43,600–$58,900
Outlook score
41/100
★★☆☆☆ Below average
AI replacement risk
39%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
+0.9%
156K openings / yr

Projected pay for Security Guards (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $38,020 → in 3 years $41,500 → in 5 years $43,900 → in 10 years $50,700 (10-year range $43,600–$58,900). The model assumes pay growth of +2.9% per year.

$38,020
Now
2026
$41,500
In 3 yrs
2029
$38,300–$45,100
$43,900
In 5 yrs
2031
$39,600–$48,900
$50,700
In 10 yrs
2036
$43,600–$58,900

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.15%AI impact +0.08%Total +2.9% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Security Guards

41/100
★★☆☆☆
Below average · ranked #648 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
8 pts
AI resistance
61 pts
Entry barrier
10 pts
Annual openings
75 pts
Projected growth
33 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Security Guards

Employment
1.3M
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
1.3M
2025–35
Projected change
+0.9%
ranked #547 for growth
Annual openings
156K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
59/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.