Will AI replace パン製造、パン職人?AI replacement risk 51% and how the work is changing

Japan Office & Admin Confidence ★★★★★

Average annual pay
¥3.97M
≈ $25,230
Top pay (est.)
¥6.47M
Top 10% ¥5.63M
Pay in 5 years
¥4.49Mest.
2031
Pay in 10 years
¥5.08Mest.
¥4.37M–¥5.90M
Outlook score
45/100
★★☆☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
51%
Moderate
Labor demand
Average
Openings-to-applicants 1.67x

Will AI replace パン製造、パン職人? AI replacement risk

51%
Moderate
Ranked #305 safest from AI among all Japanese occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using the MHLW job tag survey on work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for パン製造、パン職人

Key skills

Reading Comprehension
2.6
Active Listening
2.4
Instructing
2.4
Speaking
2.4
Writing
2.2
Service Orientation
2.1
Social Perceptiveness
2.1
Coordination
2.1

Skill levels from the MHLW job tag worker survey.

Key knowledge areas

Production and Processing
2.8
Customer and Personal Service
1.8
Sales and Marketing
1.5
Administration and Management
1.1
Personnel and Human Resources
1.0
Education and Training
0.9
Administrative
0.8
Mechanical
0.8

What the work involves

Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing WorkInspecting Equipment, Structures, or MaterialsIdentifying Objects, Actions, and EventsEstimating the Quantifiable Characteristics of Products, Events, or InformationHandling and Moving ObjectsEvaluating Information to Determine Compliance with StandardsPerforming General Physical ActivitiesJudging the Qualities of Objects, Services, or People

Important abilities

Problem SensitivityManual DexterityFinger DexterityWrist-Finger SpeedStaminaStatic Strength

Licenses and certifications (Japan)

Related qualifications listed on job tag (names in Japanese). Some are mandatory, others recommended.

Education of workers

Training before entry

Related work experience

Difficulty of entry: ★★☆☆☆ Fairly easy (from education, training, experience, licenses)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: Basic Survey on Wage Structure (2025), Population Census and Hello Work employment statistics as published on the MHLW job tag site (retrieved Nov 1, 2026); Occupational Information Database (JILPT). Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.