Shigoto Zukan
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First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $103,100 · outlook score 46/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Protective Services Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$77,970
25th–75th pct. $59,890–$103,320
Top pay (est.)
$166,100
Top 10% $127,780
Pay in 5 years
$89,700est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$103,100est.
$88,700–$119,700
Outlook score
46/100
★★☆☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
29%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
−2.5%
3,700 openings / yr

Projected pay for First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $77,970 → in 3 years $84,800 → in 5 years $89,700 → in 10 years $103,100 (10-year range $88,700–$119,700). The model assumes pay growth of +2.8% per year.

$77,970
Now
2026
$84,800
In 3 yrs
2029
$78,300–$92,300
$89,700
In 5 yrs
2031
$80,800–$99,900
$103,100
In 10 yrs
2036
$88,700–$119,700

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.33%AI impact +0.16%Total +2.8% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers

46/100
★★☆☆☆
Average · ranked #580 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
70 pts
AI resistance
71 pts
Entry barrier
53 pts
Annual openings
19 pts
Projected growth
19 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers

Employment
53K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
55K
2025–35
Projected change
−2.5%
ranked #663 for growth
Annual openings
3,700
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Low
26/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
Less than 5 years
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
None

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.