Shigoto Zukan
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First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $63,000 · outlook score 38/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Retail Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$48,520
25th–75th pct. $38,590–$62,130
Top pay (est.)
$100,200
Top 10% $77,080
Pay in 5 years
$55,300est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$63,000est.
$54,200–$73,100
Outlook score
38/100
★★☆☆☆ Below average
AI replacement risk
46%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
−3.7%
114K openings / yr

Projected pay for First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $48,520 → in 3 years $52,500 → in 5 years $55,300 → in 10 years $63,000 (10-year range $54,200–$73,100). The model assumes pay growth of +2.6% per year.

$48,520
Now
2026
$52,500
In 3 yrs
2029
$48,400–$57,100
$55,300
In 5 yrs
2031
$49,800–$61,600
$63,000
In 10 yrs
2036
$54,200–$73,100

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.39%AI impact +0.03%Total +2.6% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

38/100
★★☆☆☆
Below average · ranked #703 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
29 pts
AI resistance
54 pts
Entry barrier
37 pts
Annual openings
62 pts
Projected growth
15 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Employment
1.1M
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
1.4M
2025–35
Projected change
−3.7%
ranked #694 for growth
Annual openings
114K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
46/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
Less than 5 years
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
None

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.