Projected pay for Postal Service Mail Carriers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.
Today $60,550 → in 3 years $65,900 → in 5 years $69,600 → in 10 years $80,100 (10-year range $68,900–$93,000). The model assumes pay growth of +2.8% per year.
$60,550
Now 2026
$65,900
In 3 yrs 2029
$60,800–$71,700
$69,600
In 5 yrs 2031
$62,700–$77,600
$80,100
In 10 yrs 2036
$68,900–$93,000
What drives the annual growth rate
Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.21%AI impact +0.05%Total +2.8% / yr
Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →
Outlook score for Postal Service Mail Carriers
33/100
★★☆☆☆
Below average · ranked #761 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
49 pts
AI resistance
57 pts
Entry barrier
2 pts
Annual openings
9 pts
Projected growth
26 pts
Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.
Labor demand for Postal Service Mail Carriers
Employment
329K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
316K
2025–35
Projected change
−0.3%
ranked #599 for growth
Annual openings
20K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Low
33/100
Typical entry education
No formal educational credential
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.
Receive, store, and issue merchandise, materials, equipment, and other items from stockroom, warehouse, or storage yard to fill shelves, racks, tables, or customers' orders.
Coordinate and expedite the flow of work and materials within or between departments of an establishment according to production schedule.
$59,650
34/100
70%
Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.