Today ¥3.54M → in 3 years ¥3.78M → in 5 years ¥3.95M → in 10 years ¥4.41M (10-year range ¥3.80M–¥5.12M). The model assumes pay growth of +2.2% per year.
¥3.54M
Now 2026
¥3.78M
In 3 yrs 2029
¥3.49M–¥4.11M
¥3.95M
In 5 yrs 2031
¥3.56M–¥4.40M
¥4.41M
In 10 yrs 2036
¥3.80M–¥5.12M
What drives the annual growth rate
Base wage growth +1.8%Labor demand -0.44%Wage momentum +0.67%AI impact +0.01%Retirement shortage +0.2%Total +2.2% / yr
Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (the job-openings-to-applicants ratio), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →
Outlook score for 工場労務作業員
36/100
★★☆☆☆
Below average · ranked #504 of all Japanese occupations
AI resistance
52 pts
Entry barrier
3 pts
Pay level
3 pts
Labor demand
8 pts
Wage momentum
69 pts
Aging workforce
94 pts
Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.
Labor demand for 工場労務作業員
Openings-to-applicants ratio
0.31x
ranked #504 of all Japanese jobs
Demand score
Low
21/100
Advertised monthly wage
¥223,000
Hello Work postings
Workers
—
Population Census
Average age
50.3
Hours per month
162
Openings in 5 years
+2.7%
est.
Openings in 10 years
+4.9%
est.
A ratio above 1.0 means there are more job openings than applicants (a labor shortage). The 5- and 10-year figures are estimates from the openings ratio, wage momentum and AI replacement risk.
Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: Basic Survey on Wage Structure (2025), Population Census and Hello Work employment statistics as published on the MHLW job tag site (retrieved Nov 1, 2026); Occupational Information Database (JILPT). Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.