Bakers

United States SOC 51-3011.00 Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Also called: Bakery Worker, Bread Baker, Cake Baker, Cake Decorator, Donut Maker, Dough Maker, Dough Mixer, French Pastry Cook

Mix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.

Median annual pay
$37,160
25th–75th pct. $32,660–$44,360
Top pay (est.)
$63,700
Top 10% $49,020
Pay in 5 years
$43,400est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$50,700est.
$43,600–$58,900
Outlook score
55/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
38%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
+5.5%
36K openings / yr

What bakers do

Mix and bake ingredients to produce breads, rolls, cookies, cakes, pies, pastries, or other baked goods.

Typical tasks

Typical path into the job (BLS)

Education No formal educational credentialRelated experience NoneOn-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job trainingO*NET Job Zone 2

Bakers salary

The median annual wage for bakers is $37,160 (BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35, national). The lowest 10 percent earn less than $28,120 and the highest 10 percent earn more than $49,020. The mean annual wage is $38,480.

Median
$37,160
Mean
$38,480
10th percentile
$28,120
Entry level
25th percentile
$32,660
75th percentile
$44,360
90th percentile
$49,020
Top earners
Mean hourly wage
$18.00
2.5× the federal minimum ($7.25)
In Japanese yen
¥5.84M
≈ at 157.25 JPY/USD

The mean hourly wage of $18.00 is 2.5× the federal minimum wage of $7.25. State minimums are higher in most large states. Minimum wage by state →

How does your pay compare with people your age?

Your numbers are not sent or stored. The comparison uses this occupation's BLS wage percentiles, adjusted for age with BLS median weekly earnings by age group (Q3 2026).

Pay by percentile

Entry level (10th pct.)
$28,120
Early career (25th pct.)
$32,660
Mid career (median)
$37,160
Experienced (75th pct.)
$44,360
Top earners (90th pct.)
$49,020

Annual wage percentiles from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). Percentiles are a good proxy for pay by experience.

How median, percentiles and the pay range are defined →

Projected pay for Bakers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $37,160 → in 3 years $40,800 → in 5 years $43,400 → in 10 years $50,700 (10-year range $43,600–$58,900). The model assumes pay growth of +3.2% per year.

$37,160
Now
2026
$40,800
In 3 yrs
2029
$37,700–$44,400
$43,400
In 5 yrs
2031
$39,100–$48,400
$50,700
In 10 yrs
2036
$43,600–$58,900

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.07%AI impact +0.09%Total +3.2% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Bakers

55/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #385 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
6 pts
AI resistance
62 pts
Entry barrier
11 pts
Annual openings
86 pts
Projected growth
75 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Will AI replace Bakers? AI replacement risk

38%
Low
Ranked #349 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Labor demand for Bakers

Employment
236K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
277K
2025–35
Projected change
+5.5%
ranked #197 for growth
Annual openings
36K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Very high
80/100
Typical entry education
No formal educational credential
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

The same job in Japan

Bakers
United States
和菓子製造、和菓子職人
Japan
洋菓子製造、パティシエ
Japan
パン製造、パン職人
Japan
Median / average pay$37,160¥3.97M
≈ $25,230
¥3.97M
≈ $25,230
¥3.97M
≈ $25,230
Pay in 10 years (est.)$50,700¥5.19M¥4.95M¥5.08M
Outlook score55514245
AI replacement risk38% Low24% Low60% Moderate51% Moderate
Workers236K1.2M——

Matched by occupation (SOC code). Yen converted at 157.25 JPY/USD for reference; Japanese figures are averages, U.S. figures are medians, and the surveys define occupations differently.

Skills, education and requirements for Bakers

Key skills

Critical Thinking
2.9
Monitoring
2.9
Time Management
2.9
Speaking
2.8
Coordination
2.8
Active Learning
2.8
Judgment and Decision Making
2.6
Reading Comprehension
2.6

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Production and Processing
3.6
Food Production
3.2
Customer and Personal Service
3.2
Public Safety and Security
2.7
Administration and Management
2.6
English Language
2.5
Mathematics
2.4
Mechanical
2.4

What the work involves

Handling and Moving ObjectsOrganizing, Planning, and Prioritizing WorkPerforming General Physical ActivitiesMaking Decisions and Solving ProblemsControlling Machines and ProcessesCommunicating with Supervisors, Peers, or SubordinatesIdentifying Objects, Actions, and EventsThinking Creatively

Important abilities

Near VisionOral ComprehensionInformation OrderingOral ExpressionManual DexterityVisual Color Discrimination

Training before entry

None / short demo
21%
6–12 months
20%
Up to 1 month
8%
3–6 months
4%

Related work experience

1–2 years
53%
None
34%
3–6 months
7%
6–12 months
5%

Job Zone 2 — some preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★☆☆☆☆ Easy to enter (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

How to become bakers

Typical education
No formal educational credential
BLS
Related experience
None
On-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training

A step-by-step guide for this occupation is being prepared. The education, training and experience data above show the typical path.

Career path and how to earn more as bakers

Career-path guidance is being prepared. Pay by percentile is shown in the Pay section.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.