Shigoto Zukan
日本語

Chefs and Head Cooks job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $86,600 · outlook score 72/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Food Service Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$62,470
25th–75th pct. $48,440–$78,750
Top pay (est.)
$128,100
Top 10% $98,560
Pay in 5 years
$73,600est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$86,600est.
$74,500–$100,600
Outlook score
72/100
★★★★☆ Good
AI replacement risk
24%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
+6.6%
25K openings / yr

Projected pay for Chefs and Head Cooks (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $62,470 → in 3 years $68,900 → in 5 years $73,600 → in 10 years $86,600 (10-year range $74,500–$100,600). The model assumes pay growth of +3.3% per year.

$62,470
Now
2026
$68,900
In 3 yrs
2029
$63,600–$75,000
$73,600
In 5 yrs
2031
$66,300–$81,900
$86,600
In 10 yrs
2036
$74,500–$100,600

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.13%AI impact +0.2%Total +3.3% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Chefs and Head Cooks

72/100
★★★★☆
Good · ranked #39 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
52 pts
AI resistance
76 pts
Entry barrier
58 pts
Annual openings
77 pts
Projected growth
83 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Chefs and Head Cooks

Employment
200K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
235K
2025–35
Projected change
+6.6%
ranked #136 for growth
Annual openings
25K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Very high
81/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
5 years or more
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
None

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.