What is the job outlook for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers?

Employment of First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers is projected to change by +5.4% over 2025–35 (BLS), with about 172K openings per year. The Shigoto Zukan outlook score is 60/100.

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

Q: What will a First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers earn in 10 years?

The Shigoto Zukan model projects $60,500 in 10 years ($52,000–$70,300) and $51,600 in 5 years.

Q: Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers?

The AI replacement risk for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers is 30% (Low), estimated by comparing the tasks that AI and software can take over with the tasks that are hard to automate.

United States SOC 35-1012.00 Food Service Confidence ★★★★★

Also called: Banquet Captain, Banquet Supervisor, Bar Manager, Bartender Manager, Cafeteria Manager, Cafeteria Supervisor, Canteen Manager, Cocktail Lounge Manager

Directly supervise and coordinate activities of workers engaged in preparing and serving food.

Median annual pay

$44,080

25th–75th pct. $35,980–$54,570

Top pay (est.)

$85,200

Top 10% $65,570

Pay in 5 years

$51,600est.

2031

Pay in 10 years

$60,500est.

$52,000–$70,300

Outlook score

60/100

★★★☆☆ Average

AI replacement risk

30%

Low

Job growth (10 yr)

+5.4%

172K openings / yr

What First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers do

Directly supervise and coordinate activities of workers engaged in preparing and serving food.

Typical tasks

Resolve customer complaints regarding food service.
Train workers in food preparation, and in service, sanitation, and safety procedures.
Assign duties, responsibilities, and work stations to employees in accordance with work requirements.
Present bills and accept payments.
Perform various financial activities, such as cash handling, deposit preparation, and payroll.
Supervise and participate in kitchen and dining area cleaning activities.
Recommend measures for improving work procedures and worker performance to increase service quality and enhance job safety.
Specify food portions and courses, production and time sequences, and workstation and equipment arrangements.
Control inventories of food, equipment, smallware, and liquor, and report shortages to designated personnel.
Observe and evaluate workers and work procedures to ensure quality standards and service, and complete disciplinary write-ups.
Analyze operational problems, such as theft and wastage, and establish procedures to alleviate these problems.
Inspect supplies, equipment, and work areas to ensure efficient service and conformance to standards.

Typical path into the job (BLS)

Education High school diploma or equivalentRelated experience Less than 5 yearsOn-the-job training NoneO*NET Job Zone 2

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers salary

The median annual wage for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers is $44,080 (BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35, national). The lowest 10 percent earn less than $29,940 and the highest 10 percent earn more than $65,570. The mean annual wage is $46,180.

Median

$44,080

Mean

$46,180

10th percentile

$29,940

Entry level

25th percentile

$35,980

75th percentile

$54,570

90th percentile

$65,570

Top earners

Mean hourly wage

$22.00

3.0× the federal minimum ($7.25)

In Japanese yen

¥6.93M

≈ at 157.25 JPY/USD

The mean hourly wage of $22.00 is 3.0× the federal minimum wage of $7.25. State minimums are higher in most large states. Minimum wage by state →

How does your pay compare with people your age?

Your numbers are not sent or stored. The comparison uses this occupation's BLS wage percentiles, adjusted for age with BLS median weekly earnings by age group (Q3 2026).

Pay by percentile

Entry level (10th pct.)

$29,940

Early career (25th pct.)

$35,980

Mid career (median)

$44,080

Experienced (75th pct.)

$54,570

Top earners (90th pct.)

$65,570

Annual wage percentiles from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). Percentiles are a good proxy for pay by experience.

How median, percentiles and the pay range are defined →

Projected pay for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $44,080 → in 3 years $48,500 → in 5 years $51,600 → in 10 years $60,500 (10-year range $52,000–$70,300). The model assumes pay growth of +3.2% per year.

$44,080

Now
2026

$48,500

In 3 yrs
2029

$44,800–$52,800

$51,600

In 5 yrs
2031

$46,500–$57,500

$60,500

In 10 yrs
2036

$52,000–$70,300

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.07%AI impact +0.15%Total +3.2% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

60/100

★★★☆☆

Average · ranked #231 of all U.S. occupations

Pay level

18 pts

AI resistance

70 pts

Entry barrier

31 pts

Annual openings

82 pts

Projected growth

74 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers? AI replacement risk

30%

Low

Ranked #254 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations

Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Labor demand for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

Employment

1.2M

BLS OEWS

Projected employment

1.3M

2025–35

Projected change

+5.4%

ranked #209 for growth

Annual openings

172K

growth + replacement needs

Demand score

Very high

81/100

Typical entry education

High school diploma or equivalent

Work experience

Less than 5 years

in a related occupation

On-the-job training

None

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Skills, education and requirements for First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

Key skills

Speaking

4.0

Monitoring

4.0

Coordination

4.0

Management of Personnel Resources

3.9

Critical Thinking

3.8

Social Perceptiveness

3.6

Service Orientation

3.6

Time Management

3.6

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Customer and Personal Service

3.7

Food Production

3.6

Education and Training

3.6

Mathematics

3.5

Administration and Management

3.5

Production and Processing

3.4

English Language

3.3

Sales and Marketing

3.0

What the work involves

Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal RelationshipsCoaching and Developing OthersIdentifying Objects, Actions, and EventsHandling and Moving ObjectsGetting InformationGuiding, Directing, and Motivating SubordinatesStaffing Organizational UnitsPerforming for or Working Directly with the Public

Important abilities

Oral ExpressionOral ComprehensionWritten ComprehensionProblem SensitivityFar VisionNear Vision

Education of workers

High school diploma

70%

Less than high school

27%

Post-secondary certificate

Some college

Training before entry

3–6 months

30%

None / short demo

14%

Up to 1 month

13%

6–12 months

11%

4–10 years

10%

Related work experience

None

25%

1–2 years

22%

6–12 months

21%

Over 10 years

10%

1–3 months

10%

3–6 months

10%

2–4 years

8–10 years

Job Zone 2 — some preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★★☆☆☆ Fairly easy (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

How to become First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

Typical education

High school diploma or equivalent

BLS

Related experience

Less than 5 years

On-the-job training

None

A step-by-step guide for this occupation is being prepared. The education, training and experience data above show the typical path.

Career path and how to earn more as First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers

Career-path guidance is being prepared. Pay by percentile is shown in the Pay section.

Related occupations

	Occupation	Pay	Outlook	AI risk
1	Fast Food and Counter Workers Perform duties such as taking orders and serving food and beverages.	$31,200	57/100	30%
2	Waiters and Waitresses Take orders and serve food and beverages to patrons at tables in dining establishment.	$35,230	50/100	18%
3	Cooks, Restaurant Prepare, season, and cook dishes such as soups, meats, vegetables, or desserts in restaurants.	$37,390	65/100	19%
4	Food Preparation Workers Perform a variety of food preparation duties other than cooking, such as preparing cold foods and shellfish, slicing meat, and brewing coffee or tea.	$35,320	42/100	30%
5	Bartenders Mix and serve drinks to patrons, directly or through waitstaff.	$34,340	58/100	20%
6	Cooks, Fast Food Prepare and cook food in a fast food restaurant with a limited menu.	$30,890	41/100	35%

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data

Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.