Shigoto Zukan
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Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $50,900 · outlook score 51/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Food Service Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$37,450
25th–75th pct. $32,440–$44,800
Top pay (est.)
$64,600
Top 10% $49,670
Pay in 5 years
$43,700est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$50,900est.
$43,800–$59,100
Outlook score
51/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
27%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
+2.8%
63K openings / yr

Projected pay for Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $37,450 → in 3 years $41,100 → in 5 years $43,700 → in 10 years $50,900 (10-year range $43,800–$59,100). The model assumes pay growth of +3.1% per year.

$37,450
Now
2026
$41,100
In 3 yrs
2029
$37,900–$44,700
$43,700
In 5 yrs
2031
$39,300–$48,600
$50,900
In 10 yrs
2036
$43,800–$59,100

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.06%AI impact +0.17%Total +3.1% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria

51/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #467 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
7 pts
AI resistance
73 pts
Entry barrier
13 pts
Annual openings
83 pts
Projected growth
51 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria

Employment
441K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
467K
2025–35
Projected change
+2.8%
ranked #397 for growth
Annual openings
63K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
High
69/100
Typical entry education
No formal educational credential
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.