Projected pay for Bartenders (3, 5 and 10 years)est.
Today $34,340 → in 3 years $37,800 → in 5 years $40,300 → in 10 years $47,400 (10-year range $40,800–$55,000). The model assumes pay growth of +3.3% per year.
$34,340
Now 2026
$37,800
In 3 yrs 2029
$34,900–$41,200
$40,300
In 5 yrs 2031
$36,300–$44,900
$47,400
In 10 yrs 2036
$40,800–$55,000
What drives the annual growth rate
Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.05%AI impact +0.22%Total +3.3% / yr
Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →
Outlook score for Bartenders
58/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #284 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
1 pts
AI resistance
80 pts
Entry barrier
10 pts
Annual openings
88 pts
Projected growth
71 pts
Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.
Labor demand for Bartenders
Employment
756K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
800K
2025–35
Projected change
+5.0%
ranked #231 for growth
Annual openings
121K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Very high
81/100
Typical entry education
No formal educational credential
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.
Prepare and cook food in a fast food restaurant with a limited menu.
$30,890
41/100
35%
Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.