Shigoto Zukan
日本語

Cooks, Restaurant job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $52,700 · outlook score 65/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Food Service Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$37,390
25th–75th pct. $34,010–$44,620
Top pay (est.)
$62,300
Top 10% $47,900
Pay in 5 years
$44,400est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$52,700est.
$45,400–$61,200
Outlook score
65/100
★★★☆☆ Good
AI replacement risk
19%
Very low
Job growth (10 yr)
+12.1%
219K openings / yr

Projected pay for Cooks, Restaurant (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $37,390 → in 3 years $41,500 → in 5 years $44,400 → in 10 years $52,700 (10-year range $45,400–$61,200). The model assumes pay growth of +3.5% per year.

$37,390
Now
2026
$41,500
In 3 yrs
2029
$38,300–$45,100
$44,400
In 5 yrs
2031
$40,000–$49,500
$52,700
In 10 yrs
2036
$45,400–$61,200

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.4%AI impact +0.23%Total +3.5% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Cooks, Restaurant

65/100
★★★☆☆
Good · ranked #134 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
7 pts
AI resistance
81 pts
Entry barrier
5 pts
Annual openings
87 pts
Projected growth
95 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Cooks, Restaurant

Employment
1.4M
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
1.6M
2025–35
Projected change
+12.1%
ranked #40 for growth
Annual openings
219K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Very high
93/100
Typical entry education
No formal educational credential
Work experience
Less than 5 years
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.