Shigoto Zukan
日本語

Will AI replace machinists?AI replacement risk 43% and how the work is changing

United States Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$58,750
25th–75th pct. $47,570–$67,700
Top pay (est.)
$104,000
Top 10% $80,010
Pay in 5 years
$67,800est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$78,200est.
$67,300–$90,800
Outlook score
47/100
★★☆☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
43%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+1.0%
26K openings / yr

Will AI replace Machinists? AI replacement risk

43%
Moderate
Ranked #411 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for Machinists

Key skills

Operation and Control
3.4
Operations Monitoring
3.2
Monitoring
3.1
Critical Thinking
3.1
Quality Control Analysis
3.0
Coordination
3.0
Reading Comprehension
3.0
Complex Problem Solving
3.0

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Mechanical
3.9
Mathematics
3.5
Design
3.4
Production and Processing
3.0
Engineering and Technology
3.0
Education and Training
2.6
Computers and Electronics
2.5
Customer and Personal Service
2.3

What the work involves

Controlling Machines and ProcessesHandling and Moving ObjectsRepairing and Maintaining Mechanical EquipmentUpdating and Using Relevant KnowledgeMaking Decisions and Solving ProblemsOrganizing, Planning, and Prioritizing WorkProcessing InformationInspecting Equipment, Structures, or Materials

Important abilities

VisualizationControl PrecisionFinger DexterityNear VisionArm-Hand SteadinessDeductive Reasoning

Education of workers

High school diploma
36%
Post-secondary certificate
33%
Some college
17%
Less than high school
14%

Training before entry

1–2 years
22%
Up to 1 month
22%
3–6 months
17%
None / short demo
10%
1–3 months
9%
6–12 months
9%
4–10 years
7%
2–4 years
3%

Related work experience

2–4 years
20%
None
20%
1–2 years
16%
4–6 years
15%
3–6 months
10%
Over 10 years
7%
6–12 months
5%
1–3 months
4%
8–10 years
3%

Job Zone 3 — medium preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★★☆☆☆ Fairly easy (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.