Shigoto Zukan
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Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $69,500 · outlook score 61/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$50,620
25th–75th pct. $38,900–$70,430
Top pay (est.)
$106,300
Top 10% $81,790
Pay in 5 years
$59,300est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$69,500est.
$59,800–$80,700
Outlook score
61/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
27%
Low
Job growth (10 yr)
+5.0%
66K openings / yr

Projected pay for Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $50,620 → in 3 years $55,700 → in 5 years $59,300 → in 10 years $69,500 (10-year range $59,800–$80,700). The model assumes pay growth of +3.2% per year.

$50,620
Now
2026
$55,700
In 3 yrs
2029
$51,400–$60,600
$59,300
In 5 yrs
2031
$53,400–$66,100
$69,500
In 10 yrs
2036
$59,800–$80,700

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.05%AI impact +0.17%Total +3.2% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

61/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #210 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
35 pts
AI resistance
73 pts
Entry barrier
50 pts
Annual openings
56 pts
Projected growth
71 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

Employment
705K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
867K
2025–35
Projected change
+5.0%
ranked #231 for growth
Annual openings
66K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
High
71/100
Typical entry education
Postsecondary nondegree award
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.