Shigoto Zukan
日本語

Will AI replace first-line supervisors of production and operating workers?AI replacement risk 47% and how the work is changing

United States Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$74,450
25th–75th pct. $58,630–$91,680
Top pay (est.)
$141,400
Top 10% $108,750
Pay in 5 years
$85,900est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$99,200est.
$85,300–$115,200
Outlook score
50/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
47%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+1.8%
61K openings / yr

Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers? AI replacement risk

47%
Moderate
Ranked #478 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

Key skills

Active Listening
4.0
Social Perceptiveness
3.9
Monitoring
3.9
Coordination
3.9
Time Management
3.9
Reading Comprehension
3.8
Speaking
3.8
Management of Personnel Resources
3.8

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Production and Processing
4.6
Administration and Management
4.1
Personnel and Human Resources
4.0
Education and Training
3.9
Computers and Electronics
3.8
Engineering and Technology
3.8
Mathematics
3.7
English Language
3.5

What the work involves

Guiding, Directing, and Motivating SubordinatesCommunicating with Supervisors, Peers, or SubordinatesOrganizing, Planning, and Prioritizing WorkResolving Conflicts and Negotiating with OthersEstablishing and Maintaining Interpersonal RelationshipsHandling and Moving ObjectsControlling Machines and ProcessesMonitoring Processes, Materials, or Surroundings

Important abilities

Oral ExpressionOral ComprehensionProblem SensitivityWritten ExpressionDeductive ReasoningOriginality

Education of workers

High school diploma
33%
Some college
15%
Less than high school
14%
Associate's degree
14%
Bachelor's degree
12%
Post-secondary certificate
12%

Training before entry

3–6 months
26%
1–3 months
25%
1–2 years
15%
None / short demo
15%
Up to 1 month
14%
6–12 months
5%

Related work experience

1–2 years
29%
2–4 years
23%
3–6 months
12%
Over 10 years
10%
None
7%
1–3 months
7%
6–8 years
5%
4–6 years
4%
6–12 months
3%

Job Zone 3 — medium preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★★☆☆☆ Fairly easy (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.