Shigoto Zukan
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First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $99,200 · outlook score 50/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$74,450
25th–75th pct. $58,630–$91,680
Top pay (est.)
$141,400
Top 10% $108,750
Pay in 5 years
$85,900est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$99,200est.
$85,300–$115,200
Outlook score
50/100
★★★☆☆ Average
AI replacement risk
47%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+1.8%
61K openings / yr

Projected pay for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $74,450 → in 3 years $81,100 → in 5 years $85,900 → in 10 years $99,200 (10-year range $85,300–$115,200). The model assumes pay growth of +2.9% per year.

$74,450
Now
2026
$81,100
In 3 yrs
2029
$74,900–$88,300
$85,900
In 5 yrs
2031
$77,400–$95,700
$99,200
In 10 yrs
2036
$85,300–$115,200

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand -0.11%AI impact +0.02%Total +2.9% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

50/100
★★★☆☆
Average · ranked #488 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
65 pts
AI resistance
53 pts
Entry barrier
49 pts
Annual openings
51 pts
Projected growth
39 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

Employment
673K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
692K
2025–35
Projected change
+1.8%
ranked #494 for growth
Annual openings
61K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Average
54/100
Typical entry education
High school diploma or equivalent
Work experience
Less than 5 years
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
None

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.