Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

United States SOC 49-9021.00 Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Also called: AC Installer (Air Conditioning Installer), AC Mechanic (Air Conditioner Mechanic), AC Service Tech (Air Conditioning Service Technician), AC Servicer (Air Conditioning Servicer), AC Tech (Air Conditioning Technician), Air Balancing Technician (Air Balancing Tech), Baseboard Heating Installer, Commercial HVAC Service Tech (Commercial Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Service Technician)

Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.

Median annual pay
$61,010
25th–75th pct. $48,360–$77,060
Top pay (est.)
$123,800
Top 10% $95,210
Pay in 5 years
$72,100est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$85,200est.
$73,300–$98,900
Outlook score
69/100
★★★☆☆ Good
AI replacement risk
43%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+10.9%
41K openings / yr

What Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers do

Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.

Typical tasks

Typical path into the job (BLS)

Education Postsecondary nondegree awardRelated experience NoneOn-the-job training Long-term on-the-job trainingO*NET Job Zone 3

Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers salary

The median annual wage for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers is $61,010 (BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35, national). The lowest 10 percent earn less than $40,050 and the highest 10 percent earn more than $95,210. The mean annual wage is $64,780.

Median
$61,010
Mean
$64,780
10th percentile
$40,050
Entry level
25th percentile
$48,360
75th percentile
$77,060
90th percentile
$95,210
Top earners
Mean hourly wage
$31.00
4.3× the federal minimum ($7.25)
In Japanese yen
¥9.59M
≈ at 157.25 JPY/USD

The mean hourly wage of $31.00 is 4.3× the federal minimum wage of $7.25. State minimums are higher in most large states. Minimum wage by state →

How does your pay compare with people your age?

Your numbers are not sent or stored. The comparison uses this occupation's BLS wage percentiles, adjusted for age with BLS median weekly earnings by age group (Q3 2026).

Pay by percentile

Entry level (10th pct.)
$40,050
Early career (25th pct.)
$48,360
Mid career (median)
$61,010
Experienced (75th pct.)
$77,060
Top earners (90th pct.)
$95,210

Annual wage percentiles from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). Percentiles are a good proxy for pay by experience.

How median, percentiles and the pay range are defined →

Projected pay for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $61,010 → in 3 years $67,400 → in 5 years $72,100 → in 10 years $85,200 (10-year range $73,300–$98,900). The model assumes pay growth of +3.4% per year.

$61,010
Now
2026
$67,400
In 3 yrs
2029
$62,300–$73,400
$72,100
In 5 yrs
2031
$65,000–$80,300
$85,200
In 10 yrs
2036
$73,300–$98,900

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.35%AI impact +0.05%Total +3.4% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

69/100
★★★☆☆
Good · ranked #70 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
50 pts
AI resistance
57 pts
Entry barrier
78 pts
Annual openings
60 pts
Projected growth
94 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Will AI replace Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers? AI replacement risk

43%
Moderate
Ranked #411 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Labor demand for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Employment
410K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
489K
2025–35
Projected change
+10.9%
ranked #51 for growth
Annual openings
41K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Very high
83/100
Typical entry education
Postsecondary nondegree award
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Skills, education and requirements for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Key skills

Installation
4.0
Critical Thinking
3.8
Troubleshooting
3.8
Operations Monitoring
3.6
Repairing
3.6
Quality Control Analysis
3.2
Complex Problem Solving
3.1
Equipment Selection
3.1

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Mechanical
5.6
Building and Construction
5.4
Customer and Personal Service
4.8
Administrative
4.7
Administration and Management
4.6
Design
4.5
Production and Processing
4.2
Mathematics
4.2

What the work involves

Controlling Machines and ProcessesHandling and Moving ObjectsRepairing and Maintaining Mechanical EquipmentPerforming General Physical ActivitiesMaking Decisions and Solving ProblemsInspecting Equipment, Structures, or MaterialsUpdating and Using Relevant KnowledgeIdentifying Objects, Actions, and Events

Important abilities

Near VisionArm-Hand SteadinessFinger DexterityOral ComprehensionDeductive ReasoningInductive Reasoning

Training before entry

4–10 years
28%
Up to 1 month
26%
1–3 months
11%
6–12 months
11%
2–4 years
10%
None / short demo
9%
3–6 months
4%

Related work experience

4–6 years
39%
3–6 months
26%
2–4 years
19%
6–8 years
9%
1–2 years
5%
6–12 months
1%

Job Zone 3 — medium preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★★★☆☆ Moderate (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

How to become Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Typical education
Postsecondary nondegree award
BLS
Related experience
None
On-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training

A step-by-step guide for this occupation is being prepared. The education, training and experience data above show the typical path.

Career path and how to earn more as Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Career-path guidance is being prepared. Pay by percentile is shown in the Pay section.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.