Shigoto Zukan
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Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers job outlookprojected pay in 10 years $85,200 · outlook score 69/100 · BLS employment projections

United States Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$61,010
25th–75th pct. $48,360–$77,060
Top pay (est.)
$123,800
Top 10% $95,210
Pay in 5 years
$72,100est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$85,200est.
$73,300–$98,900
Outlook score
69/100
★★★☆☆ Good
AI replacement risk
43%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+10.9%
41K openings / yr

Projected pay for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers (3, 5 and 10 years)est.

Today $61,010 → in 3 years $67,400 → in 5 years $72,100 → in 10 years $85,200 (10-year range $73,300–$98,900). The model assumes pay growth of +3.4% per year.

$61,010
Now
2026
$67,400
In 3 yrs
2029
$62,300–$73,400
$72,100
In 5 yrs
2031
$65,000–$80,300
$85,200
In 10 yrs
2036
$73,300–$98,900

What drives the annual growth rate

Base wage growth +3.0%Labor demand +0.35%AI impact +0.05%Total +3.4% / yr

Projected pay = current pay × (1 + annual growth)^years. The annual growth rate starts from a base wage-growth rate and adds or subtracts labor demand (BLS projected employment growth), wage momentum and AI replacement risk for each occupation. Projections are not guarantees. How it is calculated →

Outlook score for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

69/100
★★★☆☆
Good · ranked #70 of all U.S. occupations
Pay level
50 pts
AI resistance
57 pts
Entry barrier
78 pts
Annual openings
60 pts
Projected growth
94 pts

Each component is a percentile rank among all occupations in the same country (0–100). Weights: labor demand 25, wage momentum / openings 15, pay level 15, AI resistance 25, aging workforce 10 (Japan only), entry barrier 10.

Labor demand for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Employment
410K
BLS OEWS
Projected employment
489K
2025–35
Projected change
+10.9%
ranked #51 for growth
Annual openings
41K
growth + replacement needs
Demand score
Very high
83/100
Typical entry education
Postsecondary nondegree award
Work experience
None
in a related occupation
On-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training

Employment projections are from the BLS Employment Projections program (2025–35). Annual openings include both new jobs and replacement of workers who leave the occupation.

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.