Shigoto Zukan
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Will AI replace Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers?AI replacement risk 43% and how the work is changing

United States Manufacturing & Repair Confidence ★★★★★

Median annual pay
$61,010
25th–75th pct. $48,360–$77,060
Top pay (est.)
$123,800
Top 10% $95,210
Pay in 5 years
$72,100est.
2031
Pay in 10 years
$85,200est.
$73,300–$98,900
Outlook score
69/100
★★★☆☆ Good
AI replacement risk
43%
Moderate
Job growth (10 yr)
+10.9%
41K openings / yr

Will AI replace Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers? AI replacement risk

43%
Moderate
Ranked #411 safest from AI among all U.S. occupations
Very lowLowModerateHighVery high

How AI is changing this job

A written analysis for this occupation is being prepared.

AI replacement risk compares the parts of a job that are easy to hand to AI or software (processing information, documentation, repetitive computer work) with the parts that are hard to automate (physical work, working closely with people, judgment in unpredictable settings), using O*NET work activities, work context, skills and knowledge. The result is a relative position among all occupations in the country, scaled to 0–100%. Methodology →

Skills, education and requirements for Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Key skills

Installation
4.0
Critical Thinking
3.8
Troubleshooting
3.8
Operations Monitoring
3.6
Repairing
3.6
Quality Control Analysis
3.2
Complex Problem Solving
3.1
Equipment Selection
3.1

O*NET skill level ratings (0–7).

Key knowledge areas

Mechanical
5.6
Building and Construction
5.4
Customer and Personal Service
4.8
Administrative
4.7
Administration and Management
4.6
Design
4.5
Production and Processing
4.2
Mathematics
4.2

What the work involves

Controlling Machines and ProcessesHandling and Moving ObjectsRepairing and Maintaining Mechanical EquipmentPerforming General Physical ActivitiesMaking Decisions and Solving ProblemsInspecting Equipment, Structures, or MaterialsUpdating and Using Relevant KnowledgeIdentifying Objects, Actions, and Events

Important abilities

Near VisionArm-Hand SteadinessFinger DexterityOral ComprehensionDeductive ReasoningInductive Reasoning

Training before entry

4–10 years
28%
Up to 1 month
26%
1–3 months
11%
6–12 months
11%
2–4 years
10%
None / short demo
9%
3–6 months
4%

Related work experience

4–6 years
39%
3–6 months
26%
2–4 years
19%
6–8 years
9%
1–2 years
5%
6–12 months
1%

Job Zone 3 — medium preparation needed (O*NET)

Difficulty of entry: ★★★☆☆ Moderate (from education, training, experience and Job Zone)

Pay and employment figures are national statistics. Projected pay, outlook scores and AI replacement risk are estimates from the Shigoto Zukan model, not guarantees. To request a correction, use the contact form. How to read the data
Sources: BLS OEWS May 2025; BLS Employment Projections 2025–35; O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA (CC BY 4.0), modified by Shigoto Zukan. Pay ranges, projections and scores are Shigoto Zukan estimates.